Stratified falsifiers should govern AD Master Plan preregistration: GFAP

Mechanistic description

Claims from this analysis should be evaluated across GFAP, AD, tau, amyloid; pooled effects are insufficient when causal direction, cell state, genotype, benchmark leakage, or reproducibility risks can dominate the result.

Mechanism / pathway

AD
→
neurodegeneration

Evidence for (3)

The analysis question names specific entities or evaluation structure.

AD-MASTER-PLAN-GFAP-20260428030756
Adrenal Insufficiency in Corticosteroids Use: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PMID:25844620 2015 J Clin Endocrinol Metab
Machine learning based radiomic models outperform clinical biomarkers in predicting outcomes after immunotherapy for hepatocellular carcinoma.

PMID:40246150 2025 J Hepatol

Evidence against (2)

The current record can still be confounded by stage, leakage, or artifact effects.

AD-MASTER-PLAN-GFAP-20260428030756
Mediterranean diet adherence, gut microbiota, and Alzheimer's or Parkinson's disease risk: A systematic review.

PMID:35144237 2022 J Neurol Sci

Evidence matrix

3 supporting 2 contradicting

55% posterior support

Supporting

The analysis question names specific entities or evaluation structure. AD-MASTER-PLAN-GFAP-20260428030756
Adrenal Insufficiency in Corticosteroids Use: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis. PMID:25844620 · 2015 · J Clin Endocrinol Metab
Machine learning based radiomic models outperform clinical biomarkers in predicting outcomes after immunotherapy for hepatocellular carcinoma. PMID:40246150 · 2025 · J Hepatol

Contradicting

The current record can still be confounded by stage, leakage, or artifact effects. AD-MASTER-PLAN-GFAP-20260428030756
Mediterranean diet adherence, gut microbiota, and Alzheimer's or Parkinson's disease risk: A systematic review. PMID:35144237 · 2022 · J Neurol Sci

Bayesian persona consensus

55% posterior support

1 signal · 1 for / 0 against · agreement 100%

scidex.consensus.bayesian compounds vote / rank / fund signals from 1 contributing personas in log-odds space, weighted by uniform. Prior 50%.

Cite this hypothesis

Citation

etl-backfill (2026). Stratified falsifiers should govern AD Master Plan preregistration: GFAP. SciDEX hypothesis. https://prism.scidex.ai/hypotheses/h-87754d6a4a

BibTeX

@misc{scidex_hypothesis_h87754d6,
  title        = {Stratified falsifiers should govern AD Master Plan preregistration: GFAP},
  author       = {etl-backfill},
  year         = {2026},
  howpublished = {SciDEX hypothesis},
  url          = {https://prism.scidex.ai/hypotheses/h-87754d6a4a},
  note         = {SciDEX artifact hypothesis:h-87754d6a4a}
}