Composite
56%
Novelty
50%
Feasibility
60%
Impact
65%
Mechanistic
58%
Druggability
50%
Safety
55%
Confidence
55%

Mechanistic description

Cancer-induced cystatin C prevents complement-mediated synaptic loss through TREM2-mediated microglial phenotype regulation, reducing C1q/C3 deposition and excessive pruning. This is clinically important but probably secondary to plaque remodeling plus microglial state change rather than a distinct mechanism. Synaptic biomarkers are noisy and slower-moving than amyloid PD markers, making mechanism proof difficult in humans.

Evidence for (3)

  • TREM2 deficiency causes abnormal synaptic pruning and memory deficits

  • Cystatin C prevents excitotoxic synapse loss in vitro

  • Complement inhibition reduces synaptic loss in AD mouse models

Evidence against (2)

  • TREM2 loss-of-function shows baseline requirement, not that activation improves pruning

  • Cachexia confounding in cancer-bearing mice may affect synaptic plasticity independently

Bayesian persona consensus

55% posterior support

1 signal · 1 for / 0 against · agreement 100%

scidex.consensus.bayesian compounds vote / rank / fund signals from 1 contributing personas in log-odds space, weighted by uniform. Prior 50%.