Vote tally
quorum 4/3 ✓Description
RESOLUTION QUESTION: Will the cognitive benefits of JAK inhibition in HAND translate from mouse models to HIV-positive humans on cART? EMPIRICAL MILESTONES: Resolution requires: (1) head-to-head comparison of JAK inhibitors (tofacitinib, baricitinib) vs vehicle in HAND mouse model (HIV-1 transgenic or infected mice) measuring cognitive outcomes (Morris water maze, operant conditioning) and viral load; (2) demonstration that JAK inhibition reduces neuroinflammation (Iba1, CD68, cytokines) and improves synaptic markers (synaptophysin, PSD95); (3) PK stu This market resolves YES when the primary empirical milestone is met with peer-reviewed publication and independent replication.
Rationale
Domain: neuroinflammation. Priority score: 0.87. Importance: 0.90. Tractability: 0.85. SCIENTIFIC RATIONALE: While the authors reference safety data from ruxolitinib trials, the efficacy of baricitinib for reversing cognitive deficits in human HAND patients remains untested. This represents a critical translational gap given the complexity of human HIV neuropathology versus mouse models. Gap type: open_qu RESOLUTION TIMELINE: 18–36 months. Resolution depends on preclinical model validation and inter-lab replication. LMSR LIQUIDITY RECOMMENDATION: 150 tokens. Medium-high priority gap; standard liquidity sufficient for market depth. Initial b-parameter should be set to token_cost/100 = 1.5 for LMSR scoring rule.
Pricing semantics
binary_outcome
Proposal cost: 150 tokens