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quorum 2/3Description
RESOLUTION QUESTION: What are the safety and efficacy profiles of IGF-based treatments for Alzheimer's disease? EMPIRICAL MILESTONES: • Randomized controlled phase I/II trial (n>=80 AD patients) of IGF-1 or IGF-1R agonist shows >=30% slower decline on ADAS-Cog13 vs placebo over 12 months • CSF biomarkers (Aβ42, t-tau, p-tau181) show significant modulation from baseline in treatment arm • Safety monitoring (MRI for microhemorrhages, fasting glucose) across all participants confirms tolerability This market resolves YES when the primary empirical milestone is met with peer-reviewed publication and independent replication.
Rationale
Domain: neurodegeneration. Priority score: 0.86. Importance: 0.88. Tractability: 0.82. SCIENTIFIC RATIONALE: While studies suggest modulating IGF pathways may ameliorate AD pathology, the authors explicitly note that safety and efficacy of IGF-based treatments remain unevaluated. This knowledge gap is essential for clinical translation. Gap type: open_question Source paper: Insulin-Like Growth Factor Sign RESOLUTION TIMELINE: 18–36 months. Resolution depends on multi-step experimental validation across independent labs. LMSR LIQUIDITY RECOMMENDATION: 100 tokens. Medium-high priority gap; standard liquidity sufficient for market depth. Initial b-parameter should be set to token_cost/100 = 1.0 for LMSR scoring rule.
Pricing semantics
binary_outcome
Proposal cost: 100 tokens