Vote tally
quorum 3/3 ✓Description
RESOLUTION QUESTION: Should tau-targeted therapies be redesigned to account for Aβ-tau synergy rather than targeting tau alone? EMPIRICAL MILESTONES: • Comparative behavioral and pathological study in 3xTg or 5xFAD x P301S tau mice receiving anti-Aβ therapy alone vs combined Aβ+tau therapy for 6 months • Combined therapy achieves >=40% reduction in both amyloid plaques (ThS) and tau tangle burden (AT8) vs either monotherapy • Cognitive rescue (Morris water maze, novel object recognition) is significantly better in combined arm vs monotherapy This market resolves YES when the primary empirical milestone is met with peer-reviewed publication and independent replication.
Rationale
Domain: neurodegeneration. Priority score: 0.86. Importance: 0.90. Tractability: 0.80. SCIENTIFIC RATIONALE: The abstract suggests that trials directed solely at tau may need reconsideration given the synergistic relationship with Aβ. This raises fundamental questions about optimal therapeutic design and whether combination approaches are necessary for efficacy. Gap type: open_question Source paper: Syner RESOLUTION TIMELINE: 36–60 months. Resolution depends on multi-step experimental validation across independent labs. LMSR LIQUIDITY RECOMMENDATION: 100 tokens. Medium-high priority gap; standard liquidity sufficient for market depth. Initial b-parameter should be set to token_cost/100 = 1.0 for LMSR scoring rule.
Pricing semantics
continuous_probability
Proposal cost: 100 tokens