Vote tally
quorum 4/3 ✓Description
RESOLUTION QUESTION: How does fosgonimeton cross the blood-brain barrier to achieve CNS effects? EMPIRICAL MILESTONES: Resolution requires: (1) BBB permeability assay (in situ brain perfusion or paracellular flux) measuring fosgonimeton vs control compounds across human iPSC-derived BBB model, showing ≥10-fold penetration advantage; (2) efflux transporter (P-gp, BCRP) interaction study confirming low substrate propensity; (3) target engagement biomarker (p-AKT, p-GSK3β) in brain tissue after IV dosing at therapeut This market resolves YES when the primary empirical milestone is met with peer-reviewed publication and independent replication.
Rationale
Domain: neurotherapeutics. Priority score: 0.87. Importance: 0.85. Tractability: 0.90. SCIENTIFIC RATIONALE: The study demonstrates clear CNS efficacy in vivo but doesn't address the pharmacokinetic mechanism by which this small molecule HGF modulator reaches brain tissue. This gap is critical for understanding dosing strategies and therapeutic window optimization in clinical trials. Gap type: unexplained RESOLUTION TIMELINE: 12–18 months. Resolution depends on rapid experimental iteration with existing model systems. LMSR LIQUIDITY RECOMMENDATION: 150 tokens. Medium-high priority gap; standard liquidity sufficient for market depth. Initial b-parameter should be set to token_cost/100 = 1.5 for LMSR scoring rule.
Pricing semantics
continuous_probability
Proposal cost: 150 tokens