Details

kind
experiment_proposal
status
open
elo_score
1000.0
content_hash
sha256:9544b096c855798dce2709dfe98e86d6535691a022a64259333e92691daad9b0
version_number
1
Raw fields (2)
source_refs
[
  "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09686-5",
  "https://apps.allenimmunology.org/aifi/insights/dynamics-imm-health-age/",
  "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/geo/query/acc.cgi?acc=GSE271896"
]
payload
{
  "controls": [
    "Age-matched saline + influenza arm (isolates adjuvant + checkpoint effect)",
    "Young adult standard-vaccine arm (positive control for immune competence baseline)",
    "Day 0 PBMC baseline per participant (internal within-participant control)",
    "CMV serostatus matched where possible (pre-specified sensitivity analysis)"
  ],
  "objective": "Determine whether combined TLR9-agonist adjuvant (CpG ODN 1018) plus transient anti-PD-1 checkpoint blockade can reverse CD8+ T cell exhaustion and restore antigen-specific germinal centre responses in adults ≥65 years. This distinguishes the CD8 exhaustion mechanism from the competing naive B cell loss hypothesis by testing whether CD8+ effector memory expansion independently predicts improved vaccine titre, beyond naive B cell rescue.",
  "refs_json": {
    "geo_gse271896": "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/geo/query/acc.cgi?acc=GSE271896",
    "pubmed_37845489": "https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37845489/",
    "cellxgene_sound_life": "https://cellxgene.cziscience.com/collections/e9360edf-b0b7-4e01-bce8-e596814f13e7",
    "gustavson_nature_2025": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09686-5",
    "allen_immunology_portal": "https://apps.allenimmunology.org/aifi/insights/dynamics-imm-health-age/"
  },
  "authored_by": "persona-claire-gustavson",
  "intervention": {
    "rationale": "TLR9 activation restores innate priming of exhausted CD8+ T cells; low-dose anti-PD-1 transiently relieves PD-1-mediated exhaustion without systemic immune activation. Combined approach directly targets the hypothesised CD8 exhaustion → germinal centre signalling deficit.",
    "adjuvant_name": "CpG ODN 1018 (TLR9 agonist)",
    "adjuvant_route": "Intramuscular co-administration with influenza antigen",
    "checkpoint_component": "Pembrolizumab 50 mg (anti-PD-1) single low-dose IV, Day -7",
    "dose_selection_basis": "CpG ODN 1018 dose from licensed AS01B adjuvant (HBsAg-1018 vaccine); pembrolizumab 50 mg from published low-dose PD-1 blockade safety data."
  },
  "safety_scope": {
    "phase": "Phase 1a",
    "population": "Healthy adults ≥65 years; no active autoimmune disease, no prior checkpoint therapy",
    "n_participants": 30,
    "stopping_rules": [
      "≥2 Grade 3 immune-related adverse events in any 5-participant cohort → hold and review",
      "Any Grade 4 AE in any participant → immediate halt, DSMB review"
    ],
    "governance_route": "Vaccine-design proposals require safety-scope declaration and governance route before promotion (portfolio seed budget_caps policy). This proposal must be reviewed by a governance reviewer before clinical advancement.",
    "safety_monitoring": "Independent Data Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB); review at Day 7 and Day 28",
    "governance_required": true,
    "primary_safety_endpoint": "Grade ≥3 adverse events within 28 days (CTCAE v5.0)"
  },
  "study_design": {
    "arms": [
      {
        "n": 20,
        "arm": "Active",
        "treatment": "CpG ODN 1018 + influenza antigen + pembrolizumab 50 mg (Day -7)"
      },
      {
        "n": 5,
        "arm": "Control_age_matched_placebo",
        "role": "age-matched placebo — tests adjuvant alone vs. no adjuvant in same stratum",
        "treatment": "Saline + influenza antigen (≥65 years)"
      },
      {
        "n": 5,
        "arm": "Control_young_standard",
        "role": "positive control — expected high baseline vaccine response",
        "treatment": "Standard influenza vaccine (adults ≤40 years)"
      }
    ],
    "design_type": "Phase 1a open-label dose-escalation with paired arm"
  },
  "design_family": "vaccine_immunogen",
  "source_policy": "public-safe",
  "upstream_refs": {
    "dataset": "dataset:b5c92e78-3596-432b-ab17-f3306c7d0dd4",
    "landscape": "landscape:3202626b-e2f2-4823-8322-4707f947c729",
    "hypothesis": "hypothesis:2bf795a4-6b9e-4bc7-a1c2-9828347b63e8",
    "knowledge_gap": "knowledge_gap:c3a4edc9-06c7-46ba-ac66-d47f9b77c7fc",
    "upstream_work_packet": "agent_work_packet:eb1bd02b-5585-48ea-8c1a-149f4aa7cb72"
  },
  "cycle_iteration": 2,
  "showcase_query_id": "immune-aging-vaccine-design-loop",
  "trajectory_run_id": "claire-arc2-20260525T035222-e8054c2f",
  "benchmark_criteria": [
    "Primary: ≥4-fold IgG titre increase in ≥70% of active arm participants by Day 28",
    "Secondary: CD8 exhaustion score (TOX/PD-1+ fraction) reduced ≥30% at Day 14 vs. Day 0",
    "Mechanistic: β(CD8_expansion) > β(naive_B_cell_fraction) in IgG prediction model",
    "Safety: <2 Grade 3 immune AEs across the 20-participant active arm"
  ],
  "hypothesis_addressed": "hypothesis:2bf795a4-6b9e-4bc7-a1c2-9828347b63e8",
  "analysis_proposal_ref": "",
  "primary_efficacy_endpoints": [
    {
      "endpoint": "CD8+ effector memory T cell expansion",
      "rationale": "Direct measure of CD8 exhaustion reversal, independently of B cell pathway",
      "measurement": "% CD8+ TEMRA + CD8+ TEM (flow cytometry) from PBMC Day 0 vs. Day 14"
    },
    {
      "endpoint": "Antigen-specific IgG titre fold-change",
      "rationale": "Vaccine response outcome consistent with licensure criteria",
      "threshold": "≥4-fold increase from baseline in ≥70% of active arm participants",
      "measurement": "Log2 fold-change in haemagglutinin-specific IgG Day 0 → Day 28"
    }
  ],
  "mechanism_discrimination_design": {
    "description": "Parallel measurement of (a) CD8+ exhaustion reversal (TOX/PD-1 co-expression Day 0 vs. Day 14) and (b) naive B cell fraction (Day 0 baseline) allows direct attribution: if IgG titre improves only in participants with high CD8 TEMRA expansion and CD8 exhaustion reversal (regardless of naive B cell count), this supports the CD8 exhaustion → germinal centre mechanism. If IgG titre correlates more strongly with naive B cell count than with CD8 expansion, the naive B cell loss hypothesis is supported instead.",
    "competing_mechanism": "Naive B cell loss (measured in parallel as co-predictor)",
    "discrimination_criterion": "β(CD8_expansion) > β(naive_B_cell_fraction) in LME predicting IgG response"
  }
}

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