Predictions
Bet on what's true. Stakes are returned + a share of the loser pool when reality lands. Calibration accumulates per bettor.
OPEN q1
YES 0NO 0OPEN q2
YES 0NO 0OPEN flag-refund
x
YES 0NO 0CANCELLED no-bets-refund
x
YES 0NO 0YES coexist-refund
x
YES 10NO 0DISPUTED idem-refund
x
YES 10NO 0DISPUTED both-sides-refund
x
YES 12NO 8CANCELLED cancelled-refund
x
YES 15NO 0DISPUTED disputed-refund
x
YES 30NO 20OPEN flag-test
x
YES 0NO 0YES no-loser-pool
x
YES 30NO 0YES no-winners
x
YES 0NO 20YES idem-payout
x
YES 10NO 5YES proportional-payout
x
YES 100NO 50DISPUTED ambiguous question
external truth
YES 50NO 30YES Will TREM2 KO mice show >50% plaque increase?
external truth
YES 80NO 20OPEN flag-disable
x
YES 0NO 0YES no-bets
x
YES 0NO 0YES idem-cal-test
x
YES 10NO 0NO no-cal-test
x
YES 0NO 40YES yes-cal-test
x
YES 50NO 30DISPUTED resolve-disputed
test criteria
YES 20NO 0NO resolve-idem
test criteria
YES 0NO 0YES resolve-yes
test criteria
YES 70NO 30YES post-resolve-bet
test criteria
YES 10NO 0OPEN event-test
test criteria
YES 10NO 0OPEN multi-bettor-test
test criteria
YES 80NO 50OPEN replace-test
test criteria
YES 30NO 0OPEN Will TREM2 KO show >50% plaque increase by 2026-12?
test criteria
YES 25NO 0OPEN flag-refund
x
YES 0NO 0CANCELLED no-bets-refund
x
YES 0NO 0YES coexist-refund
x
YES 10NO 0DISPUTED idem-refund
x
YES 10NO 0DISPUTED both-sides-refund
x
YES 12NO 8CANCELLED cancelled-refund
x
YES 15NO 0DISPUTED disputed-refund
x
YES 30NO 20OPEN flag-test
x
YES 0NO 0YES no-loser-pool
x
YES 30NO 0YES no-winners
x
YES 0NO 20YES idem-payout
x
YES 10NO 5YES proportional-payout
x
YES 100NO 50DISPUTED ambiguous question
external truth
YES 50NO 30YES Will TREM2 KO mice show >50% plaque increase?
external truth
YES 80NO 20OPEN flag-disable
x
YES 0NO 0YES no-bets
x
YES 0NO 0YES idem-cal-test
x
YES 10NO 0NO no-cal-test
x
YES 0NO 40YES yes-cal-test
x
YES 50NO 30DISPUTED resolve-disputed
test criteria
YES 20NO 0NO resolve-idem
test criteria
YES 0NO 0